Forecast of paper market in 2019
Consumption of packaging paper of the world in 2019, is expected to grow by 3.1%, of which Asia is forecasted to increase by 4.3%. The trend of converting non-recyclable packaging or low recycling into paper packaging is ongoing.
Looking back at the paper market in 2018
Vietnamese paper industry in 2018 has witnessed a strong growth compared to 2017, and this is also the highest growth rate in the history of Vietnam's paper industry. Consumption of all kinds of paper achieved a output of 4.946 million tons, an increase of 16.0%; production reached 3.674 million tons, growing by 31.0%; exports reached 809,250 tons, up 63.0%; imports reached 2.081 million tons, up 6.0%. In terms of value: Export of paper and finished paper products achieved a turnover of USD 1.088 billion, an increase of 50.0% compared to 2017.
Particularly for packaging paper in 2018, the total consumption of packaging paper reached 3.818 million tons, accounting for 77.2% of the total consumption of all kinds of paper, growing by 20.0% over the same period, the level growth in the highest volume in the history of Vietnamese paper industry. In particular, consumption of uncoated packaging paper reached 3.17 million tons, accounting for 83.0%; Chalk coated paper reached 648.400 tons (not packing with coated packaging used for liquids such as milk, alcohol, juice,...), accounting for 17.0%. Production of packaging paper in 2018 achieved output of 3.046 million tons, accounting for 81.3% of paper production, growing by 37.0% over the same period. Packaging paper is the largest export product with 641.000 tons, accounting for 79.2% of the total paper and 99% growth over the same period.
Forecast of paper market in 2019
World: Forecast of testliner and medium paper consumption grew by 3.1%, production capacity increased by 5.2%, mainly in the markets of North America, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, and Asia. As a result, supply can exceed demand by 2.1% in 2019.
Vietnam: the world consumption of printing and writing paper is forecasted to grow by 1.09% in 2019, in which Asia is forecasted to increase by 1.0%. Domestic consumption still grows by about 3-5%. The CPTPP and EU agreements and increased export opportunities for notebooks into the US market due to the impact of the US-China trade war, lead to more opportunities for outsourcing and exporting notebooks.
Consumption of packaging paper in the world in 2019, is expected to grow by 3.1%, of which Asia is forecasted to increase by 4.3%. The trend of converting non-recyclable packaging or low recycling into paper packaging is ongoing. Domestic consumption is projected to grow by more than 12%. Domestic paper processing for export will increase sharply since businesses expand production scale and some new capacity to put into production with large capacity such as Oji (Ha Nam) 50 million m2 / year of hard paper in the second quarter of 2019.
Consumption of tissue paper in the world in 2019 is forecasted to increase by 4.0%, in which Asia is forecasted to increase by 5.8%. Domestic consumption in 2019 is forecasted to increase by over 6.0%, due to population and food and hospitality services growth.
However, Vietnam's paper industry may still face many challenges in the export market competition and the domestic market and the dependance on recovered paper materials. Therefore, businesses need to have specific plans to ensure their production and business efficiency.
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